It was a rough run for NFL underdogs in Week 5, as point-spread pups finished 4-10 ATS overall following a hot 56% start to 2024.
As we roll into Week 6 and beyond, the power of points diminishes. I pinpointed this swing in market value for pups in last week’s column, with underdogs covering at a 55% clip in September over the past 10 seasons before dropping to 50.6% from Week 5 onward.
Two of those favorites that covered the spread in Week 5 started the week as underdogs, with Miami (+1.5 to -2) and Houston (+1 to -1.5) jumping the fence and coming through as short chalk.
We’ve got another one of these games teetering on a pick’em in Week 6, with the Tennessee Titans opening as 1-point home favorites hosting the Indianapoli…